Climate Changes Welfare Recovary, Poverty disappears ?

Climate Changes Welfare Recovary, Poverty disappears ?

Unemployment & Poverty are discused in the 2 classes of 60 respondens. It is not wise to direct the effect of the lowerest imported foods which is entring the domestic market. But, finally the analysis shows that is the predator which cause the economic collaps. Don’t you know what the predator is ? and How full employment suddenly be ? Save the World Economics ? Fortunately, there is an invisible hand of Adam Smith & David Recardo. When we study the free trade for transfering goods between 2 countries. The prices of imported foods are lower than the domestic foods. Consumptions Then the poverty who do not have any purchasing power, who do not have any income, unemployment who do not have enough money, then the poverty sufficient their consumption of cheapers imported foods in good quality. Production The domestic foods production are loser and the labour stop to work. For 10 years, flud make the field to much water, then the dry seasons make the field out of water. Which is called el Nino or Climate changes by the scientis. Earthquack or tsunami came and go. Finally, we call that the avian influences are the predator, which destroy the farm and poultry, and nothing left for foods. These are the main reason why unemployment and poverty happened in Indonesia. So, the trade expantion of imported foods is not the main hazard, is not cause the suffering the country. Climate Changes Can you comprehendhow climate changes everything ? Fiscal policy side, has suspected that increasing commodity prices and increase in energy prices in the world, which impact of purchasing power of poor peoples. Policy makers becomes confuse when effect the increasing burden of fuel subsidies, followed by electricity in the budget government. Climate cahnge in the country of origin, that the field is destroyed by flud and natural disaster, but not in the Indonesia as the country of destination. But, imported food are absolutely stop. The discussion is ended by conclution that the import is not stoped by the tariff levied. Off course, the food prices is increased absolutely 4 times. This time, in the last seasons farmers went to the field. Today is 3 month after harvesting, that found enough food for their live. Sailors go to the ocean too, and go home with fish in hand. Others, only in 2 weeks the incubators exploided the doc (days of chicks), and waiting for 30 days to get the fried chicken of your table ready to serve. Conclution How wonderfull is the live ? Suddenly, people go to work again, harvest, frying, producing, selling and shopping again. May sustainable forever.

How do you struggle for your live ?

How do you struggle for your live ?

Finally at the end of 2008, state surrender to the power of increasing of the world crude oil prices, that hit the state budget fall into defisit, by the oil and gas subsidy and the electricity subsidy.

The state announce to fight 80 million poverty close to 100 million poor people by allocated IDR 3,600,000 million or US$ 360 million (exchange rate IDR10,000/US$). Do not see the amount of US$3,6 per capita of how to implement the health program.

But, how people survive all years (1998-2008).

There are 2 major economic and social problem, there are 100 million poverty and 40 million unemployment, how the government have to solve these sadness, hunger, thirth, and tears.

Is expenditure a good model ?

Is Expenditure become a good model ?

Government Expeniture is a fical model that push the economics machine to distribute goods and services but tightly stabilized the econoics mechanism. Te main strategic is fiscal sustainability, where stimulus the fiscal tend to a little deficit rather than balanced budget. By stimulus the tax incentives for activate the business, spending budget for infrastructure, and increase expenditure by increasse government officers purchusing power. Others tah goods and services, what will be distributed elsewhere ? Offcource, it must be the money and machine from any where to be fdi to Indonesia. The Money/ Machines or Capital/Technologi or Investment/Factory will be foreign direct invested to Indonesia, especially to the regional area. Truly it happens after after oil prices and 208 crisis !

Environmental Demand is an external power where increase the export, but the oil prices which will increase tremendously, but the prices will also decrease and trend significantly. If Indonesia export is prime comodities, The China or others countries will also exports their mass production much more flowded and make te prices corected cheapers.

Internally, remmember when the prices is so high level, the most expensive price especially the peoples’ prime commodities ever hit the purchusing power down for 2 years to the end of 2008. If the crisis disaster will be happened soon at the beginning of 2009, and the world economics hope American immediately stimulus the economics crisis more better off. Where either way , we found the early warning of uneployment will happened.

The Expenditure Model creates the deficit buget of 0,5% PDB which tend to be 4% of PDB if the oil prices increases to US$ 200 per barrel. Where the 100% inflate oil price & gas ever hit the purchaing power of people by imediately down to poverty. What is the condition when ecreasing of prices of oil & gas happened in the next years. However, 100 million poor people lost their asset and only have the body left after th crisis. Futher more, we call the deficit model to create growth to fight poverty and unemployment. By the way we call the stability model, where fiscal policies synergi with monetary policy to keep the inflation, interest rate and exchange rate stable.

Why so affraid to direct invest ?

Revenue & Investment

Income per capita is a final target, whether will be connected in speeding up the growth, employment, and fight poverty. The riel purchasing power is only 5% higher. It means, the pushing of increasing incoe per capita by 1% is really too low. Because increasing salaries, minimum wages and workers remmitance are not to much significant changes the income level.

Investent

99% poor people where live under the straugle of small business entreprises, are depend on self investment, when there is no access to the financial institution. Small business are not foreign investent who dominate 35% credit. The rest are a few coorporation and infrstructure project, who get finance resourcing more easily rather than small business.

How wonderful is, when the sall business survive the whole life of 99% poor people, provided income, transfer job experiences, and go the commodities internationally.

However, banking is not contribute to people income and investment, but people have culture to keep gold as saving habitual. People invest earlier before infrastructure development. We do not consider how traditional people do the business, but we can see how brave the people are because they want to live anylonger.

Invesment Climate’s Services and Haronization.

The program sincronize the rule and reform custom and tax services, and the small business want the capital inflow to be a part of riel sector, and in good competitions.

Foreign Direct Investment.

Except FDI, the only one direct invest before 10,000 MW electric plant, before highway development, that she want the only one as monopoly an she want the government close the permition. We will agree if the industry in labour intensive, exported product, and huge consumpt the domestic raw materials.

Fight Poverty and Unemployment

Fight Poverty and Unemployment

With the big surprise, unemployment is exploided tremendously 10 million people or 25% of 40 million worker. Poor people increase to be 40 million or 20% of total populations.

The 5% growth rate is absolutely constrain, then the povert and unemployment are the greatest economisc enemy thay may cause any disaster. How to correlate th epolicy to fight Poverty and Unemployment ?

Theory said, if the growth ↑→ poverty and unemployent ↓, what happened when growth rate ↑ the poverty and unemployment ↑ too. It must be something wrong with the macro economics stabilities. If we are quit prudential to see the exchange rate of Rp9000/ US$ and the interest rate of 6% (the Fed too), a super big surprise will happened, and crisis 2008 is coming in now.

How to help the poor

A poverty is a disaster, where the governent fall in responsibilities to pay a contribution of IDR 5,000 or halp dollar per month per person only for outpatient, free medicine, free emergency care and free ambulance. Than the 100 million poverty have to be insured by US$ 600 million. USA use US$700 milion to save the country. The US$600 million is realized only for no more poor people, avoid of mother and infant fatality.

Problem and Obstacles

When economic is unrecovered, where the amont of poverty is increasing. Controlling is a must, but it is becoming problems and obstacles. How to monitor and evaluate the program ?

INFLATION, GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT

Growth Mechanism

Mekanisme Pertumbuhan Ekonomi

Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi akan mendorong produktivitas ekonomi à terbukalah kesempatan kerja à mendorong pendapatan masyarakat ↑ meningkat. Atau sebaliknya, masyarakat meperoleh pendapatan bila bekerja/berusaha, bisa bekerja bila pabrik berproduksi, hal ini bilamana pertumbuhan ekonomi cukup tinggi.

Bila pertumbuhan ekonomi 7% sama tingginya dengan pertumbuhan sebelum krisis 1997, ternyata tingkat produktivitas tidak sama. Pada kenyataannya, laju pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cenderung positif sepanjang tahun-tahun terakhir, tetapi laju pertumbuhan tersebut belum mencapai tingkat produktivitas semasa sebelum krisis.Fakta yang menunjukan tingkat penganguran hingga 9% disertai dengan tingkat kemiskinan hingga 17%, artinya mungkinkah tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi harus jauh lebih tinggi lagi. Hal ini mengingat jumlah penduduk semakin tinggi.

Keinginan mencapai tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tertinggi, belum terpenuhi bila mengingat pengaruh krisis internal dan krisis eksternal. Tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tertinggi tidak menjamin peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat. Namun demikian, pertumbuhan merupakan salah satu sasaran dan menjadi indikator dalam upaya perbaikan kondisi perekonomian Indonesia.

Yang diinginkan oleh masyarakat luas adalah distribusi pendapatan yang merata. Walaupun, laju pertumbuhan ekonomi melambat, bagi masyarakat yang penting sama-sama memperoleh pendapatan yang merata. Dengan demikian, kesejahteraan masyarakat tidak tergantung tinggi / rendahnya tingkat pertumbuhan.

FIGHTS POVERTY

Unemployment Poverty

Pengangguran dan Kemiskinan

PHK (pemutusan hubungan kerja) artinya kehilangan pekerjaan atau putusnya usaha sekecil apapun, merupakan fenomena permasalahan sosial yang paling ditakuti oleh masyarakat dimana terdapat sejumlah keluarga yang tergantung pada gaji/upah berpendapatan tetap.

Model pertumbuhan ekonomi yang ditinggikanà seharusnya mendorong peningkatan produktivitas dunia usaha à berikutnya ekonomi makro menyediakan kesempatan kerja dan peluang berusaha yang lebih besar à perekonomian Indonesia akan menyerap angkatan kerja terbaru.

Kualitas pertumbuhan ekonomi terbatas setinggi 7% dan hanya dapat meredam pengangguran hingga 9% dengan kemiskinan disekitar 17%. Jika semata-mata hanya mengandalkan pertubuhan, maka peningkatan kesempatan kerja dan penurunan tingkat pengangguran memerlukan pertumbuhan yang signifikan tingginya dan tidak mungkin.

Pengangguran dan kemiskinan yang melekat dalam kehidupan masyarakat yang terlihat adalah perilaku malas bekerja dan rasa engan berusaha serta tidak mau berjerih payah. Bertambahnya angkatan kerja secara otomatis mengikuti pertambahan umur penduduk. Jadi, untuk menanggulangi pengangguran dan kemiskinan terpulang pada keinginan dan kemampuan angkatan kerja dan rumah tangga masyarakat untuk mengambil manfaat dari pertumbuhan ekonomi yang setinggi 7% dan bersyukur masih bisa menikmati bagian dari peningkatan pendapatan.

Beberapa hal yang dapat terlihat dari upaya pemerintah dalam menetapkan sasaran indikator perekonomian makro Indonesia, adalah :

(1) pertumbuhan pembangunan dan penurunan tingkat pengangguran hingga 9%. Artinya berada diatas 4% sebagai batas keseimbangan pengangguran yang normal dalam perekonomian.

(2) Diperlukan berbagai kebijakan untuk mendorong produktivitas sektor-sektor ekonomi yang mampu menyerap tenaga kerja secara besar-besaran hinga 5%.

(3) Kebijakan pengembangan sektor riil, sektor manufaktur dan sektor pertanian, dimana sebagian besar penduduk mencari penghidupan secara tradisional.

(4) Selain sasaran peningkatkan pendapatan, memberikan juga akses ke berbagai sarana, seperti pendidikan, kesehatan, air bersih, dan sebagainya.

OIL PRICES

130 Fiscal Policy

Rencana Kerja Pemerintah

Pokok-pokok Kebijakan Fiskal

Pendekatan serba lembaga, menuntut Departemen Keuangan untuk merumuskan kebijakan dari fiskal sebagai motor stimulus sebagai penggerak pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dalam upaya penanggulangan kemiskinan. Menurut pendapat ahli, stimulus fiskal yang dimaksud tersebut dilakukan dengan penuh kelemahan, yaitu :

• menetapkan kebijakan lintas sektoral yang tumpang tindih,
• implementasi otonomi daerah yang tidak mendukung,
• pungutan negara pajak maupun non pajak sebagai penerimaan pusat
• minimnya pembiayaan perbankan
• bermasalah dengan aspek sosial dan lingkungan hidup.

Dengan UU No. 17 / 2003 pasal 13, Pemerintah RI cq DEPKEU mempertanggungjawabkan Keuangan Negara dalam bentuk presentasi yang berjudul “Kerangka Ekonomi Makro dan Pokok-pokok Kebijakan Fiskal” kepada DPR. Yang penting bukan isinya yang membangga-banggakan kebijakan fiskal tahun-tahun sebelumnya (2006), bukan menonjolkan keberhasilan perkembangan ekonomi tahun berjalan (2007) dan proyeksi tahun kedepan (2008). Tetapi, yang penting adalah bagaimana langkah-langkah kebijakan fiskal, bagaimana pendekatan-pendekatan fiskal baru. Langkah selanjutnya adalah bagaimana cara kerja sama di antara komponen masyarakat dan pemerintah untuk mengimplementasikan rencana-rencana yang telah disusun secara konsisten, merata dan terealisasi secara konkrit. Tuntutan masyarakat terhadap pemerintah yang profesional dengan prinsip transparansi dan akuntabilitas yang tinggi, juga semakin meningkat agar berbagai kebijakan yang ditetapkan benar-benar dilandasi pertimbangan dan analisa yang matang.

Sinergi Fiskal dan Moneter

Pendekatan lembaga dari sisi kebijakan moneter, Bank Indonesia (BI) sebagai otoritas moneter dituntut untuk tetap konsisten mengarahkan kebijakan moneternya untuk menciptakan stabilitas harga melalui penerapan Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF).

Bila Kondisi ekonomi makro stabil à inflasi terkendali à menjadi dasar penurunan BI Rate secara bertahap.

Bila BI rate ↓ à terjadi stimulasi terhadap sektor riil à memberi insentif besar bagi perbankan à suku bunga ↓ à kredit naik à permintaan domestik naik.

Sekarang Pemerintah cd DEPKEU dan BI berpendapat sama bahwa stabilitas harga hanya bisa tercapai bila ada sinergi antara otoritas fiskal dan moneter. Kerja sama antara Pemerintah cq DEPKEU dan BI ini tertuang dalam Nota Kesepakatan tentang Mekanisme Penetapan Sasaran, Pemantauan dan Pengendalian Inflasi di Indonesia tanggal 1 Juli 2004. Selanjutnya, dalam Keputusan Menteri Keuangan No.339/KMK.011/ 2004 tanggal 6 September 2004.

Bila dalam 3 tahun berturut-turut à inflasi years of years stabil à tercapai target

Bila target 2005-2007 à inflasi 6,5% à 5,5 % à dan 4,5% dengan toleransi deviasi sebesar ± 1%. à realisasi inflasi 2005-2008 à menjadi 8,0%; 6,0% dan 5,0% à inflasi dipandang rendah à daya beli masyarakat ↑.

Kondisi ekonomi makro seperti inilah yang dikatakan stabil. BI sebagai otoritas moneter menyatakan inflasi terkendali, dan BI menyatakan tiba waktunya BI Rate turun, tetapi tidak mendadak melainkan BI rate akan turun secara bertahap.

Diantaranya, yang mana yang akan menjadi fokus kebijakan fiskal dan moneter. Bila diingat dominannya karakteristik industri nonmigas dalam pasar domestik tetapi memiliki tingkat ketergantungan terhadap bahan baku impor yang tinggi. Maka, sektor industri nonmigas sangat sensitivitasterhadap gejolak permintaan eksternal yang juga masih tinggi, sektor industri nonmigas daya saingnya sangat rendah, serta sektor industri non migas yang minim investasi.

Adapun komoditas nonmigas yang memiliki daya saing dan nilai tambah cukup tinggi antara lain Minyak Kelapa Sawit (CPO) sertabeberapa komoditas tekstil dan TPT. Pemilihan program juga terkait dengan pertimbangan terhadap pengentasan kemiskinan dan penciptaan lapangan pekerjaan yang lebih luas. Fiskal juga mempertimbangkan stimulasi terhadap perekonomian daerah dalam bentuk Dana Alokasi Khusus (DAK).

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